نوع مقاله : استخراج از رساله دکتری
نویسنده
دانشجوی مدیریت دولتی، گرایش تصمیم گیری و خط مشی گذاری
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
In this research, we are looking for future research and designing possible scenarios of social security services in the framework of macroeconomic variables that will affect the future of more than 53% of the people of Iran, in order to create a favorable and believable future for the organization. Establish social security. The purpose of this research is to provide possible scenarios of social security. The target population was 20 high and middle managers social security organization as the target population. The research method is based on the prospective research approach of a mixed (mixed) type, in terms of the purpose of descriptive research, and on this basis, the strategy of qualitative research (critical evaluation) and field type (matrix checklists), scenario building, with Scenario software. Based on the degree of complexity of the conditions for each key factor, Wizard has considered 4 to 5 possible situations, from a completely favorable situation to a critical situation, and experts have been asked about the future status of each key factor based on the weight given to the possible situations of each scenario. Three categories of scenarios (very strong scenarios, believable scenarios and weak scenarios) have been extracted. Among the plausible scenarios of the implementation of active policies for employment, a society with minimal economic growth and the development of resources and expenditure of the fund, and the prevention of unnecessary importation of unnecessary goods, and the support of domestic industries and producers, and the increase of production and productivity, having a strong motivation and satisfaction of the planning workforce. and providing a model for the integration of the fund's resources and expenses system have been selected as the four final strategies for the development of social security services.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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