مدیریت بازاریابی هوشمند

مدیریت بازاریابی هوشمند

مدل‌سازی موانع کلیدی و رتبه‌بندی راهکارهای عملی برای تسهیل نفوذ سیستم‌های خورشیدی خانگی در بازار ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی-پژوهشی

نویسندگان
گروه مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه اراک، اراک، ایران
چکیده
هدف: گسترش سیستم‌های خورشیدی خانگی (SHS) به‌عنوان راهکاری کلیدی برای تنوع‌بخشی به سبد انرژی و حرکت به سوی توسعه پایدار مورد توجه سیاست‌گذاران قرار گرفته است. با وجود ظرفیت بالای تابش خورشیدی در ایران، نفوذ این سیستم‌ها در بازار بخش خانگی همچنان محدود است. هدف این پژوهش شناسایی و مدل‌سازی موانع کلیدی نفوذ در بازار سیستم‌های خورشیدی خانگی در ایران و اولویت‌بندی راهکارهای عملی برای کاهش این موانع است. نوآوری پژوهش، ارائه چارچوب ترکیبی فازی FDM-FAHP-MARCOS برای مدیریت عدم‌قطعیت قضاوت خبرگان و اولویت‌بندی عملیاتی راهکارها متناسب با ساختار اقتصادی ـ نهادی بازار انرژی ایران است.

روش پژوهش: این پژوهش کاربردی با رویکرد توصیفی ـ تحلیلی انجام شد. چارچوب روش‌شناختی تحقیق بر پایه یک مدل ترکیبی تصمیم‌گیری چندمعیاره فازی طراحی گردید. در مرحله نخست، با مرور ادبیات، 48 مانع بالقوه شناسایی و با استفاده از روش دلفی فازی (FDM) و نظر 7 نفر از خبرگان انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر غربال شد. در مرحله دوم، برای تعیین اهمیت نسبی و وزن نهایی ابعاد و شاخص‌های موانع، از روش تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی فازی (FAHP) استفاده گردید. در نهایت، برای رتبه‌بندی 10 راهکار پیشنهادی، روش مارکوس فازی (Fuzzy MARCOS) به کار گرفته شد.

یافته‌ها: نتایج دلفی فازی منجر به شناسایی 23 مانع کلیدی در پنج بُعد شامل کیفیت تجهیزات، ساختار مالی و پرداخت، خدمات و پشتیبانی، ابعاد ترویجی و فناورانه، و ابعاد نهادی و اجتماعی شد. بررسی فرایند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی فازی نشان داد بُعد ساختار مالی و پرداخت (وزن 0.32) و خدمات و پشتیبانی (وزن 0.24) مهم‌ترین موانع نفوذ در بازار سیستم‌های خورشیدی خانگی هستند. در سطح شاخص‌ها نیز هزینه اولیه بالای سیستم، مبلغ پیش‌پرداخت بالا و کمبود خدمات پس از گارانتی مهم‌ترین موانع شناسایی شدند. نتایج رتبه‌بندی با روش مارکوس فازی نشان داد تسهیل طرح‌های بازپرداخت اقساطی، پرداخت یارانه نصب برای مناطق روستایی و مسکن عمومی و تدوین قانون شفاف و پایدار خرید تضمینی برق (FIT) مؤثرترین راهکارها هستند.

نتیجه‌گیری: محدودیت‌های اقتصادی و ضعف زیرساخت‌های خدمات فنی، مهم‌ترین عوامل بازدارنده پذیرش و نفوذ بازار سیستم‌های خورشیدی خانگی در ایران هستند. طراحی سازوکارهای نوآورانه تأمین مالی، سیاست‌های حمایتی هدفمند و تقویت نظام خدمات پس از فروش می‌تواند مسیر نفوذ بازار این فناوری را تسهیل کند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Modeling Key Barriers and Ranking Practical Strategies for Facilitating the Market Penetration of Solar Home Systems in Iran

نویسندگان English

Ali Ehsani
Farzad Bahrami
Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, Arak University, Arak, Iran
چکیده English

Purpose: The expansion of Solar Home Systems (SHS) has gained significant policy attention as a key strategy for diversifying the energy mix and promoting sustainable development. Despite Iran’s vast solar potential, the penetration of these systems in the residential market remains limited. This study aims to identify and model the key barriers to the market penetration of SHS in Iran and rank practical strategies for mitigating them. The main innovation of this research lies in proposing a hybrid fuzzy framework (FDM-FAHP-MARCOS) to manage the uncertainty in expert judgments and prioritize operational strategies tailored to the economic-institutional structure of the Iranian energy market.

Methodology: This applied research adopts a descriptive–analytical approach. A hybrid fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making framework was developed for the methodology. In the first stage, 48 potential barriers identified from the literature were screened using the Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM) based on the judgments of 7 renewable energy experts. In the second stage, the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) was applied to determine the relative importance and weights of the barrier dimensions and indicators. Finally, the Fuzzy MARCOS method was utilized to rank 10 proposed practical strategies.

Findings: The FDM phase identified 23 key barriers classified into five dimensions: equipment quality, financial and payment structure, service and support, promotional and technological factors, and institutional and social factors. The FAHP results revealed that the “financial and payment structure” dimension (weight: 0.32) and “service and support” (weight: 0.24) are the most critical barriers to SHS market penetration. At the indicator level, high initial system cost, high down payment requirements, and lack of post-warranty services were the top obstacles. The Fuzzy MARCOS ranking showed that facilitating installment-based repayment schemes, installation subsidies for rural areas and public housing, and establishing a transparent and stable Feed-in Tariff (FIT) policy are the most effective strategies.

Conclusion: Economic constraints and weak technical service infrastructure are the primary deterrents to the adoption and market penetration of SHS in Iran. Designing innovative financing mechanisms, targeted support policies, and strengthening the after-sales service system can effectively facilitate the market penetration path of this technology.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Solar Energy Market
Fuzzy MCDM
Renewable Energy Policy
Solar Home Systems (SHS)
 
Aklin, M., Bayer, P., Harish, S.P. and Urpelainen, J. (2018) ‘Economics of household technology adoption in developing countries: evidence from solar technology adoption in rural India’, Energy Economics, 72, pp. 35–46.
allahyaribeik, sara, Houshmandi, saeed, Saraei, Alireza. “Investigation and Analysis of a Solar-Wind Hybrid System for Natural Resource Conservation with Energy Storage for Konjedkar (Zilayi) Village, Khuzestan Province.” Journal of  Renewable Natural Resources Research, vol. 16, no. 1, 2025, pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.71916/jrnr.2025.1207402
Chang, D.Y. (1996) ‘Applications of the extent analysis method on fuzzy AHP’ European Journal of Operational Research, 95(3), pp. 649–655. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(95)00300-2
Dong, L., Hardman, S., Firestone, J., & Bunch, D. S. (2026). Clean technology adoption preferences: integrated analysis of co-adoption of electric vehicles and solar panels. Transportation Letters, 18(2), 219-237.
Effah, E., Gyamfi, S., Diawuo, F.A. and Asuamah, E.Y. (2025b) ‘Socio-economic factors influencing the adoption of solar home systems: the case study of Ghana’, Scientific African, 28, e02727. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02727
Effah, E., Gyamfi, S., Diawuo, F.A. and Atinsia, M.A. (2025a) ‘Post technical assessment and field manual for solar home systems in island communities: The case of Ghana’, Solar Comp., 14, 100107. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SOLCOM.2025.100107
Ehsani,A. and Zahedi,A. E. (2026). Maturity model of construction companies by implementing a lean-agile approach using multi-criteria decision-making. (e238723). Journal of Structural and Construction Engineering, 13(05), e238723. https://doi.org/10.22065/jsce.2026.543824.3809
George AA, Ghosh D (2026;), "Powering sustainability: a D-BWM approach to overcoming barriers and advancing solar power adoption among Indian households". International Journal of Energy Sector Management, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJESM-05-2025-0034
Ghamkhari,S M and Pour Ali Ganji,L . (2023). Investigating the effect of perceived usefulness, ease of use, enjoyment, trust and social influence on intention to use with the mediating role of consumer attitude (Case of study: Household solar electricity customers in Yazd city). Journal of Intelligent Marketing Management, 4(2), 66-87.
Ghazinoory, S., Akhlaghi, M.M., Shafiei Alavijeh, A., Hosseinalizadeh, R. and Nasri, S. (2025) ‘Systematic failures in the development of photovoltaic systems: The case study of Iran’s solar energy’, Energy Strategy Reviews, 57, 101637.
Hajpoor, S. and Shahraki, A. (2025) ‘Marcos model for ranking civil project contractors’, Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 54(117), pp. 73–82. https://doi.org/10.22034/ceej.2023.54561.2207
Hosseinjanizadeh N, Ghaedi M, (2020). 'Identify the obstacles of investment with emphasis on assigning of government land (Case study: solar and small scale power plants in Kerman province)', Journal of Development strategy, 15(4), pp.176-191. magiran.com/p2094337
Hsu, C. C., & Sandford, B. A. (2007). The Delphi technique: making sense of consensus. Practical Assessment, Research, and Evaluation, 12(1), 1-8. https://doi.org/10.7275/pdap-t984
International Energy Agency (IEA) (2023) Solar PV global supply chains. Paris: IEA.
International Energy Agency (IEA) (2024a) Renewables 2024: Analysis and forecast to 2030. Paris: IEA.
International Energy Agency (IEA) (2024b) World energy outlook 2024. Paris: IEA.
International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) (2023) Renewable energy policies and regulatory frameworks for solar PV. Abu Dhabi: IRENA.
Islam, R. and Islam, N. (2017) ‘Evaluation of Solar Home System (SHS) implementation in Harirampur subdistrict’, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 69, pp. 1281–1285. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.12.043
Jami Odulo, M. and Yazdani, M.H. (2021) ‘Analysis and prioritization of non-use of solar energy in residential areas of Ardabil with emphasis on environmental sustainability’, Journal of Environmental Science Studies, 6(3), pp. 4004–4012.
Karimzadeh, S. and Salehi, S. (2022) ‘A social study of the possibilities of transitioning from conventional fuels to renewables among Iranian villagers (Case study: Solar panels)’, Quarterly Journal of Environmental Education and Sustainable Development, 11(1), pp. 91–111.
Khattak, A. K., Saad, M., & Haq, M. H. U. (2026). EXPLORING PUBLIC PERCEPTION AND ATTITUDE TOWARDS HOUSEHOLD SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS. International review of business and social sciences, 6(1), 1-16.
Liu, G., Li, M., Zhou, B., Chen, Y. and Liao, S. (2018) ‘General indicator for techno-economic assessment of renewable energy resources’, Energy Conversion and Management, 156, pp. 416–426.
Mahn, D., Best, R., Wang, C. and Abiona, O. (2024) ‘What drives solar energy adoption in developing countries? Evidence from household surveys across countries’, Energy Economics, 138. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107815
Mahu, S. A., Odoi-Yorke, F., Adu-Poku, A., Avuglah, R. K., Frimpong, E. A., Quansah, D. A., & Kemausuor, F. (2026). Overcoming Technical and Operational Barriers in Low-Voltage Mini-Grids: Two Decades of Research Trends, Progress, and Pathways for Accelerated Rural Electrification (2005–2025). Energies, 19(4), 933.
Marshall, P. G., Thanarak, P., Ketjoy, N., & Prasatsap, U. (2026). Barriers to sustainable rural electrification: A PESTEL-based qualitative case study of Mae Hong Son Province, Thailand. Energy for Sustainable Development, 92, 101935.
Molepo P, Mathaba TND, Aboalez K (2026;), "Barriers to the adoption of solar and wind energy technologies: a systematic literature review". International Journal of Energy Sector Management, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJESM-12-2024-0001
Mukisa, N., Manitisa, M.S., Nduhuura, P., Tugume, E. and Chalwe, C.K. (2022) ‘Solar home systems adoption in Sub-Saharan African countries: Household economic and environmental benefits assessment’, Renewable Energy, 189, pp. 836–852. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.03.029
Mustafa, M., Malik, M.O.F. and Maqsoom, A. (2024) ‘Barriers to solar PV adoption in developing countries: multiple regression and analytical hierarchy process approach’, Sustainability (Switzerland), 16(3). https://doi.org/10.3390/su16031032
Naderi Mahdei, K. and Mahmoudian, H. (2016) ‘Analysis of barriers and solutions for use of solar energy (a case study of Hekmatane District)’, Iranian Journal of Energy, 19(2), p. 57.
Ngonda, T. (2022) ‘A scoping review of adopter attributes, motivations, and barriers of solar home systems adoption: Lessons for sub-Saharan Africa’, Renewable Energy and Sustainable Development, 8(1). https://doi.org/10.21622/resd.2022.08.1.001
Pamučar, D., Stević, Ž. and Sremac, S. (2021) ‘A new model for determining weight coefficients of criteria in MCDM models: Full consistency method (FUCOM) and its application with fuzzy MARCOS’, Applied Soft Computing, 102, 107081. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2021.107081
Rahimi Rad, Z., Yahyazadefar, M., Miremadi, T. and Madhoshi, M. (2018) ‘Identification and analysis of social-technical transition barriers to photovoltaic solar systems focusing on fossil fuel regime’, Journal of Technology Development Management, 6(1), pp. 49–77.
Rigo, P.D., Siluk, J.C.M., Lacerda, D.P., Rediske, G. and Rosa, C.B. (2020) ‘A model for measuring the success of distributed small-scale photovoltaic systems projects’, Solar Energy, 205, pp. 241–253.
Salim, A. M., & Abu Dabous, S. (2026). A stakeholder-based framework for implementing solar home systems in public housing projects in the United Arab Emirates. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 19(4), 849-864.
Salim, A.M. and Alsyouf, I. (2020) ‘Renewable energy in the United Arab Emirates: status and potential’, in 2020 Advances in Science and Engineering Technology International Conferences (ASET), pp. 1–5.
SATBA (Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Organization). (2026). Statistical summary of the country’s renewable electricity industry Retrieved from https://amar.satba.gov.ir/fa/tablesandcharts-
Sedai, A. et al. (2023) ‘Renewable energy resource assessment for rural electrification: a case study in Nepal’, International Journal of Low-Carbon Technologies, 18, pp. 1107–1119. https://doi.org/10.1093/IJLCT/CTAD089
Stević, Ž., Pamučar, D., Puška, A. and Chatterjee, P. (2020) ‘Sustainable supplier selection in healthcare industries using a new MCDM method: Measurement of alternatives and ranking according to compromise solution (MARCOS)’, Computers & Industrial Engineering, 140, 106231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cie.2019.106231
Warburg, C., Kivevele, T., & Pogrebnaya, T. (2026). Solar technology penetration in Sub-Saharan Africa: Status, drivers, barriers, and future prospects. Journal of Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems, 14(1), 1-29.
World Bank (2023) Scaling solar and distributed solar development: Policy guidance for emerging markets. Washington, DC: World Bank.
Zomorodian, Z.S. and Tahsildoost, M. (2019) ‘Capacities, barriers and incentives for development of renewable energies in Iran’s rural areas’, Housing and Rural Environment, 38(165), pp. 17–32.