مدیریت بازاریابی هوشمند

مدیریت بازاریابی هوشمند

ارزیابی تأثیر قواعد مختلف سیاست پولی بر رفاه اجتماعی در دوره‌های ثبات و بحران ارزی در ایران

نوع مقاله : استخراج از رساله دکتری

نویسندگان
1 بخش اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد ، مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شیراز
2 بخش اقتصاد، دانشگاه شیراز
3 دانشگاه شیراز
چکیده
هدف اصلی این پژوهش برآورد آثار رفاهی قواعد مختلف سیاست پولی در ایران با در نظر گرفتن دوره‌های ثبات و بحران ارزی است. برای دستیابی به این هدف، یک مدل چند بخشی تعادل عمومی پویایی تصادفی کینزی جدید برای اقتصاد ایران برآورد شد. پس از طراحی مدل با معرفی 6 قاعده سیاست پولی مختلف اقدام به مقایسه اثرات رفاهی تغییر در قواعد سیاست پولی جایگزین برای اقتصاد ایران شد. در این پژوهش تلاش شد تا به این سؤال پاسخ داده شود که با توجه به ساختار اقتصاد ایران، کدام قاعده سیاست پولی در دوره‌های ثبات و بحران ارزی می‌توانند از منظر رفاهی کارآمدتر باشند. در گام نخست با استفاده از شاخص فشار بازار ارز، دوره‌های ثبات و بحران ارزی در اقتصاد ایران طی سال‌های 1367 تا 1401 شناسایی شدند. سپس با استفاده از داده‌های موجود در اقتصاد ایران، برآورد مدل‌ها و استفاده از نتایج سایر پژوهش‌ها اقدام به کالیبره کردن مدل بر اساس دوره‌های ثبات و بحران ارزی شد. درنهایت، زیان رفاهی قواعد مختلف پولی در دوره‌های مختلف با در نظر گرفتن شوک‌های منفرد و نیز وارد شدن 5 شوک به‌صورت همزمان بر اقتصاد محاسبه شده و با یکدیگر مقایسه شدند. نتایج این پژوهش نشان داد در دوره بحران‌های ارزی، بیشترین زیان رفاهی مربوط به زمانی است که سیاست‌گذار پولی قاعده رشد تولید اسمی را به‌عنوان مبنای سیاست پولی قرار دهد. همچنین طی این دوره کمترین میزان زیان رفاهی در شرایطی رخ می‌دهد که سیاست‌گذار پولی جهت تنظیم مقادیر متغیرهای پولی از قاعده تثبیت نرخ ارز استفاده کند. بر اساس نتایج پژوهش در دوران ثبات نسبی نرخ ارز در اقتصاد ایران، بیشترین زیان رفاهی مربوط به زمانی است که سیاست‌گذار پولی قاعده رشد تولید اسمی را به‌عنوان مبنای سیاست پولی قرار دهد. همچنین طی این دوره کمترین میزان زیان رفاهی در شرایط رخ می‌دهد که سیاست‌گذار پولی جهت تنظیم مقادیر متغیرهای پولی از قاعده تعمیم یافته کابرا و همکاران (تعیین رشد حجم پول بر اساس نرخ تورم، شکاف تولید، نرخ ارز و مقادیر گذشته حجم پول) استفاده کند.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

The Impact Effect of Different Monetary Policy Rules on Welfare During the periods of Stability and Currency crisis in Iran

نویسندگان English

Ebrahim Hadian 1
Sima Shaygan Mehr 2
Parviz Rostamzadeh 3
Zahra Dehghan Shabani 3
1 Economics, Economics, Management and Social Science
2 economics, shiraz university
3 shiraz university
چکیده English

The main goal of this research is to estimate the welfare effects of different monetary policy rules in Iran, considering periods of stability and currency crisis. In this research, a new Keynesian stochastic dynamic multi-sector general equilibrium model was estimated for Iran's economy. After designing the model by introducing 6 different monetary policy rules, the welfare effects of shocks were compared with alternative monetary policy rules for Iran's economy. In this research, an attempt was made to answer the question of whether according to the structure of Iran's economy, which ratio of monetary policy rules can be more efficient in terms of welfare in periods of currency stability and crisis. In the first step, using the currency market pressure index, periods of currency stability and crisis in Iran's economy from 1988 to 2022 were identified. Then, by using the data available on Iran's economy, estimating the models and using the results of other research, the model was calibrated based on periods of currency stability and crisis. Finally, the welfare losses of different monetary rules in various periods were calculated and compared with each other by considering individual shocks and the introduction of 5 shocks simultaneously in the economy. The results of this research showed that in the period of currency crises, the greatest loss of welfare is related to the time when the monetary policymaker puts the rule of nominal production growth as the basis of monetary policy. Also, during this period, the lowest amount of welfare loss occurs in the situation where the monetary policymaker uses the exchange rate stabilization rule to adjust the values of monetary variables. According to the results of the research, during the period of relative stability of the exchange rate in the Iranian economy, the greatest loss of welfare is related to the time when the monetary policymaker puts the rule of nominal production growth as the basis of monetary policy. Also, during this period, the least amount of welfare loss occurs in the conditions when the monetary policymaker uses the generalized rule of Cabrera et al. (2011).

کلیدواژه‌ها English

welfare effects
monetary rules
Currency crisis
Iranian economy
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دوره 6، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 28
تابستان 1404
صفحه 480-506

  • تاریخ دریافت 12 آبان 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری 25 فروردین 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش 01 تیر 1404