Objective: This study aims to identify, classify, and explain the causes and roots of objective and subjective conflicts of interest between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Turkey in the Caucasus and Central Asia regions, with a specific focus on the Republic of Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan.
Methodology: This research is descriptive-analytical in terms of objective and qualitative in terms of approach. The statistical population consisted of experts and specialists in foreign policy and regional affairs; twelve individuals were selected using the snowball sampling method based on the principle of theoretical saturation. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews and analyzed using the thematic analysis method (Braun and Clarke model). The reliability of the conceptual model was confirmed at a valid level by calculating the Kappa index (0.743). Additionally, the Fuzzy Delphi technique was implemented over two rounds to screen, validate, and reach a final consensus regarding the indicators.
Findings: A total of 109 initial codes were extracted from the interview transcripts; following consolidation, these were categorized into secondary codes and 19 main themes. The key components and themes identified include: structural geopolitical rivalry; security and military conflicts; competition over corridors and transit routes; geoeconomic and market-oriented rivalry; energy geopolitics; identity-cultural conflicts; public diplomacy and media representation; institutional rivalry (particularly centering on the Organization of Turkic States); the aftermath of the 2020 Karabakh War; cognitive and perceptual conflicts; and the differing operational styles of the two nations. Results from the Fuzzy Delphi screening confirmed the validity and high priority of all extracted indicators (with crisp scores exceeding 0.7).
Conclusion: The conflict of interests between Iran and Turkey in their shared periphery is multidimensional, structural, and networked in nature, stemming from an overlap of hard factors (trade corridors, energy, borders) and soft variables (identity construction, the war of narratives, and media image-building). The Republic of Azerbaijan serves as the focal point of this rivalry and balancing dynamic. Managing this landscape—and preventing a decline in the country's geopolitical weight—requires Tehran to shift from a conservative, reactive stance toward active institution-building, the modernization of transit infrastructure, and the activation of multilateral and digital diplomacy.